A truly explosive storm? Read the view from Netweather about the severe weather predicted for Monday

Storm clouds
Storm clouds

All eyes meteorologically are focused on a low pressure system currently on the other side of the Atlantic which is headed our way, propelled by a very powerful jet stream.

The big questions are what will develop as it reaches our side of the ocean late on Sunday? Where will it hit? Just how damaging could it be?

These are all questions that can’t be answered fully at the moment, as the highest risk of storm damage comes from a phenomenon known as explosive cyclogenesis, sometimes called a Bomb.

A new low is forecast to develop to the south of the existing system headed towards Scotland, and this is where the potential for a bomb is being forecast, so the precise track and intensity are moving around on each data run, but what does it mean for those in the firing line right now?

Jo Farrow, senior forecaster for www.netweather.tv, an independent UK weather forecast company, explains

‘Forecasters are watching for the development of a secondary, more southerly low.

“This low pressure has the potential to push a meteorological ‘Turbo’ button.

“So rather than just bringing wet and windy weather as it crosses the UK, it could step up several gears.

“If this happens (lots of upper air goings on, mixing with favourable lower level conditions, all coming together), there could be an intense period (less than six hours) of damaging winds (gusts over 80mph and severe gales) whizzing across the UK.

“That is the worrying bit. The latest run (as of 11am Friday) shows the English Channel coastal counties being hit between 9pm Sunday and lunchtime Monday.

“Running from Isles of Scilly 9-11pm across Isle of Wight towards Sussex, Kent and Essex by 3-5am before clearing the east coast in the early afternoon.

“These details will be updated with each model run, keep an eye on the NetWeather Watch.”

The last time the South of the UK experienced this explosive development was the Great Storm of October 15th 1987, and famously Michael Fish delivered the BBC forecast the day before. In his latest video forecast for Netweather, Michael said: “It’s looking pretty horrendous, perhaps I should be putting on my hurricane hat.”

And later tweeted: “I’m keeping my head down as there’s something familiar about Monday’s possible weather!!! See my Netweather.tv forecast.”

The saturated ground will be further soaked by the expected torrential rain accompanying the storm, and with many trees still in full leaf the risk of fallen branches and trees increases.

Localised flooding is also possible, especially with drains being blocked by leaves and other debris once the winds arrive.