Lewes could fall to Liberal Democrats in an election, says You Gov poll

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Conservative MP for Lewes, Maria Caulfield, is predicted to lose her seat to the resurgent Liberal Democrats at the next General Election, in a new poll of key Tory marginals.

Maria Caulfield, who won Lewes against LibDem MP Norman Baker in 2015, retained her seat in the 2017 election with a majority of 5,508 (1.02 per cent.)

But a new You Gov poll suggests LibDems could take the seat at the next election by a majority of nearly six percent.

The You Gov poll of more than 1,200 voters in 20 key constituencies shows Boris Johnson faces losing more than half to the Lib Dems.

The poll covered constituencies with the smallest Conservative majorities where LibDems came second in 2017 and shows a 14.1 per cent slump in Tory support and a swing of more than 8 per cent to LibDems.

The swing increases if Boris Johnson campaigns for a No Deal Brexit. When voters were asked what they would do in the hypothetical situation where their local Conservative MP stood as an independent anti-No Deal candidate, the party’s official candidate would be defeated by the LibDems in all but three of 20 seats surveyed.

Maria Caulfield said: “The poll was a small one asking just over 1,000 people in 20 constituencies. Realistically that is only about 60 people in Lewes.

“Going by recent local election results Conservatives won the highest share of the vote and in European elections the Brexit party beat LibDems. Most people in the constituency want Brexit delivered.”

Norman Baker said: “There is no doubt seats like Lewes in the remain-voting South-East are vulnerable for Tories as they pursue an insane crash-out Brexit.

“Many moderate Conservatives look aghast at the right-wing coup that has taken over their party and are switching to the LibDems.

“I have no doubt Lewes can once again become a LibDem seat. At this crucial time for the UK all sensible people need to pull together. It is mad to drive over a cliff edge.”