Analysis: Brighton are now third in the Premier League - according to data experts

Here's a look at the underlying numbers from Brighton's 1-1 draw with Liverpool in the early kick-off on Saturday (November 28)
Pascal Gross equalised in the final minutes to rescue a point for Brighton against Liverpool. Photo: GettyPascal Gross equalised in the final minutes to rescue a point for Brighton against Liverpool. Photo: Getty
Pascal Gross equalised in the final minutes to rescue a point for Brighton against Liverpool. Photo: Getty

Expected Goals, Expected Goals Against, Expected Points

Brighton were dubbed 'possibly the unluckiest team in the world' by The Athletic journalist Duncan Alexander during a podcast a couple of weeks ago.

The reason he said this, as you may already know, is due to Brighton's positive numbers when it comes to Expected Goals, Expected Goals Against and Expected Points.

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The Albion have been doing everything right all season, except putting the ball in the net, and also conceding goals that probably should have been saved.

However, overall, this is a positive sign, both of a good team and a very good coach.

Against Liverpool, Brighton's underlying numbers very nearly shone through fully in all their glory, if it wasn't for Neal Maupay missing another great chance again this season - I do hope he can find some confidence and get his finishing touch back.

The xG scoreline, according to understat.com, was 2.31 - 0.28 in favour of Brighton. The main takeaway from this is that it was a dominant display from The Seagulls, both going forward and defending. The Albion defended brilliantly against the most potent attack in the league and restricted Liverpool to very few low-quality shots - what a time to support the club.

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Liverpool's highest value shot was 0.08 xG, which means the shot is expected to go in eight per cent of the time.

Brighton's xG was so high (2.31) because they had two penalties, which equates to an xG shot value of 0.76 each, or in other words, the penalty taker is expected to score 76 per cent of the time. However, Brighton only cashed in on one of these big opportunities thanks to a late stoppage time penalty from the in-form Pascal Gross.

Based on Brighton's Expected Points, they are sat in third position overall in the league on 16.48 points, behind only Chelsea and Liverpool, but they have played a game more than some of the other teams around them.

Today's performance wasn't different from most other displays this season, but the result was. Thankfully, the Expected Points table can show us how well a team is playing and not just the final outcome of games.

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Another stat which gives more weight to the quality of Potter-ball, and how the style is now mingling with the elite, is goals scored from open play.

Brighton have scored 11 goals from open play, Liverpool have scored 14, Spurs 17, Chelsea 12, Leicester 11, Southampton 12, Everton 12, Man City 12. Not bad company to be in.

VAR

On a separate note, I think Danny Welbeck dived to win that penalty, I don't blame him for going down, but I do blame the referees for being consistently poor in the Prem.

Senior journalist at The Guardian Barney Ronay summed VAR up perfectly, for me, this week on the national newspaper's Football Weekly podcast.

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His incisive yet comical soliloquy was specifically to do with Manchester United and their reliance upon penalties and VAR - but his take feels like it can be applied to most of the video decisions across the league, which are often farcical, like the game is being run by pedants not purists.

I think his analysis could be applied to the Welbeck penalty decision and Salah offside goal.

Ronay said: "There's this constant ongoing debate about the award, the analysis, the re-award, the execution, the taking, the re-taking of penalty kicks. Somehow, this glorious club [Manchester United], this beautiful thing, as part of the popular culture, these red shirts flying forward, Matt Busby's team of youth and attack and flying wingers has become an incredibly tedious, technical exercise in the award and execution of penalties.

"Bruno Fernandes' entire career at Old Trafford is him standing in front of a dead ball in front of an empty stadium while people argue about millimetres and he joylessly converts it at the second attempt and refuses to even smile. It's just horrible.

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"And watching a middle aged man staring at a monitor while Bruno Fernandes waits - it's like a vision of death. Everything is wrong there. Everything.

"If you watch the highlights, you're going to watch the highlights of people staring at screens while you stare at your screen. The whole spectacle has become horrendous and I want it to stop.

"Yeah, it was probably a penalty, but nobody learnt anything, nobody won and nobody had a good time."

The decision went for Brighton this time, but there's been plenty of times when it hasn't - do we really want the game to continue down this path? I'm not so sure I do. And I'm 100 per cent sure Jurgen Klopp doesn't after his post-match interview.