Brighton’s xG under-performance explained - could Seagulls be about to turn a corner?

Here, we try and shed some light on the burning questions surrounding the metric, which has crept into our consciousness over the past few seasons.

We’ve included an interactive graph – made with Flourish – which includes every team’s expected goals for and against, so you can see for yourself how Brighton ranks against their Premier League rivals.

We’ll also take a look at what expected goals actually means for Graham Potter and the Seagulls’ season so far.

WHAT ARE ‘EXPECTED GOALS’?

For a statistic that can seem complicated at first glance, the explanation is actually rather simple.

Expected goals - or xG as it appears on your television screens - measures the quality of a shot based on different variables.

These include assist type, distance from goal, shot angle and whether it was defined as a ‘big chance’.

In short, a player having an xG of 0.3 means he or she would score 30 percent of the time.

When looking at the xG of a Premier League team, an xG of 10 would equate to the number of goals a team has been expected to score up until that point in the season.

For example, Chelsea boasts an xG of 13.6 but have netted 20 goals in the Premier League so far this campaign, meaning they are over-performing.

WHAT CAN EXPECTED GOALS TELL US?

Measuring expected goals can give fans an indication of the number of times that a team or individual player should have scored on average, given the type and number of shots they have taken.

Of course, this isn’t an exact science and the expected goals statistic is prone to fluctuate during a season.

WHAT DO EXPECTED GOALS TELL US ABOUT BRIGHTON?

Brighton’s xG this season so far is 12.36, the 7th highest in the Premier League. In reality, the Seagulls have found the net 11 times this campaign.

That means Potter’s side are under-performing compared to the number of goals they are expected to score using the xG metric.

A fact which won’t surprise fans given the Neal Maupay saga, Danny Welbeck’s misses and Brighton’s lack of striking options.

Indeed, the expected goals Brighton are predicted to concede sits at 7.25, the lowest in the top-flight.

However, in their fixtures so far Potter’s men have shipped 14 goals, the fifth most in the division.

Using the xG metric suggests that Brighton are underperforming at both ends of the pitch - and that there is work to do if the Seagulls are to improve on their current position of 16th.

On the other hand, Brighton’s under-performance could add weight to the theory that the Seagulls have been unlucky and that a change of fortunes is around the corner.

CAN WE TRUST EXPECTED GOALS?

You’ll find many traditionalists that don’t want academics crossing over into the beautiful game, and xG is certainly a product of academia.

Indeed, it is unlikely that anyone could predict every team and their player’s real live goal-scoring potential an exact science.

Nevertheless, xG remains valuable as a predictor and indicator but should definitely be balanced alongside watching matches with your own eyes and drawing your own conclusions.