Revealed! The points tally Brighton will need to reach to secure Premier League survival

The Seagulls are unbeaten in five matches in the league, and have picked up impressive results against the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur during that run to drag themselves 10 points clear of the relegation zone.

Albion's current purple patch, plus the struggles that Fulham, West Brom, and Sheffield United have had in terms of putting together any kind of meaningful or sustained run of form this season, would suggest that they are in a good position to beat the drop, but survival can’t be taken for granted in a division as competitive as the Premier League.

With that in mind, we’ve ran the numbers to see what points tally should see Graham Potter’s men to safety this term, and to figure out the best way that they can reach that total.

How many points will be enough to avoid relegation?

It goes without saying that there is no hard and fast rule on how many points will actually be enough come the end of the season.

No two relegation battles are the same, and the 2020/21 campaign in particular has been a topsy-turvy affair to say the least.

What we can do, however, is look back through the history books to determine a points tally that is most likely to ensure survival.

Over the past decade, Premier League clubs who have finished 18th in the table have recorded points totals of 34, 34, 33, 34, 37, 35, 33, 36, 36, and 39, stretching all the way back to the 2010/11 campaign.

As such, anything above those tallies in any of those given seasons would have been enough to secure survival.

By adding one point to each of those totals and dividing it by 10, we reach an average of 36.1.

Goal difference notwithstanding, that means Premier League sides, on average, have had to win 37 points to ensure their top flight status over the past decade.

The only two occasions in the past 10 years in which 37 points wouldn’t have guaranteed safety came in 2010/11, when Birmingham City picked up 39 points and finished 18th, and in 2015/16, when Newcastle United reached 37 points with a goal difference of -21.

What do Brighton need to do to reach 37 points?

Albion are currently on 25 points with 23 games played, meaning that they need to take 12 points from their last 15 matches.

Four wins would be enough to do it, although the Seagulls could rely on a few draws here and there too.

Potter’s side have drawn 10 games already this season – the highest tally in the Premier League.

In terms of clashes that will be earmarked as winnable, Brighton still have to play seven clubs who are currently in the bottom half of the table, with fixtures against Crystal Palace, West Brom, Southampton, Newcastle, Sheffield United, Wolves, and Arsenal still to come.