Cheltenham Festival ante-post focus: One month to go

Of our previous five selections, Gaillard Du Mesnil has been cut to 10/3 from 10/1, Stattler 8/1 from 12/1, and Min has drifted slightly to 7/1 following an uncharacteristic mistake-ridden performance at the Dublin Racing Festival.

There is no change in either Fantasio D’alene or Mahler Allstar’s prices and it looks like they won’t be heading to the festival in March.

Perhaps you’re mulling over who you should add to your ante-post collection? Well, here are three more that travel to the festival with a good chance of upsetting favourite backers.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle - BALLYADAM 9/1 EW

Ballyadam has spent the majority of his short hurdling career operating in the shadow of Appreciate It, finishing behind the Mullins-trained seven-year-old on his previous two starts, but may head to the festival in March slightly overpriced.

Gordon Elliott’s recruit began his career by finishing third in a bumper, when going off a short priced favourite, before bouncing back and recording a convincing eighteen length victory on his next start.

Subsequent to that, the transfer to obstacles couldn’t have gone much sweeter as he comfortably dismissed twenty-three rivals by a cumulative thirteen lengths on his first two appearances over hurdles.

But, when the son of Fame And Glory first opposed Appreciate It at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, it would be a euphemism to describe his jumping as underwhelming.

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The six-year-old never travelled fluently and weakened after the last (usually second last) hurdle and, although many made the excuse that Gordon Elliott’s runners weren’t firing on all cylinders over the Christmas period, it simply looked like he wasn’t good enough on the day.

Since that lacklustre appearance, Ballyadam ran gallantly to finish three lengths behind Appreciate It in the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle just eleven days ago. In the affair, the Elliott-trained gelding settled in mid-division and travelled three wide throughout, before making strong headway around the home turn - where he looked poised to make a strong challenge to the Supreme favourite.

After a mistake at the last, Ballyadam rallied to stay on behind Appreciate It and clearly didn’t get all the luck in-running.

Don’t get me wrong, it looks a tall order to turn the tables with Willie Mullins’ superstar but at five times the price, there is little value in Appreciate and should he fail to fire, Ballyadam looks in good order to pick up the pieces.

Champion Chase - NUBE NEGRA 12/1 EW

Indeed, the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase revolves around the Willie Mullins-trained Chacun Pour Soi, who has solidified himself at the top of the market following a foot perfect display in the Dublin Chase, but it would be unwise not to consider the each way value in behind the red-hot favourite.

And, it seems, that the value to fill the frame could come in the form of the Desert Orchid winner Nube Negra, who undoubtedly didn’t get the credit he deserved following that impressive performance.

The seven-year-old was highly tried in his hurdling career, finishing third in the Fred Winter and fifth in a Grade one at Aintree, but it was the switch to the larger obstacles which seemed to launch the Skelton-trained gelding to new heights.

On his chase debut, he dismissed the well-backed Ballymoy to score comfortably, before following that up with a decisive victory at Fakenham.

Since that triumph back in October 2019, the son of Dink has only had three runs, finding Espirit Du Large and Rouge Vif too good before bouncing back from a three hundred and twenty-three day break to record a career best performance in the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase - dismissing Altior and reversing the form with Rouge Vif by thirty-one lengths in the process.

Of course, it was Altior who stole the headlines, and the limelight was stolen away from Nube Negra’s top-class display.

Luckily however, Shishkin ran on the same day at Kempton, which made it all the easier to judge Nube Negra’s performance in comparison to a star novice, and ultimately highlight just how good it was.

The pace of both races were run very similarly, with the Novices’ Chase being run slightly slower in the opening stages, but by the ninth fence both contenders were jumping stride for stride.

At this point in the race, Shishkin came through to take the lead, whereas Nube Negra was still stalking the pacemaker Duc Des Genievres. The Arkle favourite then quickened away and had a two second advantage over Nube Negra at the last fence, who was eased around a hundred yards before the line.

When they hit the winning post, there was just under three seconds between the two winners - bearing in mind they both had a lot in hand. So, what does this say about both performances?

Well, it’s worth noting that the Arkle has been on average 1.7 seconds quicker than the Champion Chase - which is of course not taking into account the ground variation between the races.

Therefore, if Shishkin is to be an Arkle winner - and a good one by the looks of it - then the two second difference at the final obstacle ranks Nube Negra’s performance highly. Coming off the back of a lengthy absence, you can upgrade that win, and he could be the one to serve it up to Willie Mullins’ classy favourite at a good price.

Albert Bartlett - FAKIERA 10/1 EW

Whilst I have already pinned my hopes on Stattler in the previous ante-post article for the Albert Bartlett, it’s impossible to ignore Fakiera’s courageous performance when stepped up to 2m6f, and it seems certain that the step up to three miles will only improve his chances in the affair.

The Gordon Elliott-trained six-year-old has shown some good, but not outstanding, hurdles form in the past year - beating 93% of his opponents in the process (92/97) - and it seems that every step up in trip has eked out any further improvement which could be to come.

This was clearly evident when he stepped up in trip for the first time to 2m6f at the Dublin Racing Festival, finishing fourth of thirteen.

Settling just to the outside of the winner Gaillard Du Mesnil, the son of Cokoriko jumped efficiently for the majority of the race before being ridden before the second last.

When looking like he should weaken, Fakiera demonstrated a gritty attitude to make good headway three wide round the home bend and, although hitting the last obstacle, rallied to readily dismiss Ganapathi and record the quickest time from the last hurdle to the line (a quarter of a second quicker than Gaillard Du Mesnil).

He will undoubtedly appreciate the three mile trip in store at Cheltenham and should throw down the gauntlet to Stattler to challenge him all the way to the line.