Farm Diary

WE snatched a second cut of silage just before the rain arrived: another magnificent performance by Glebdales the contractors.

After several days of sunshine the sugar levels should be high, and as it was only 40 days after first cut the quality must be there. The clamp is now absolutely full and all grass silage for the cows all done for the year- a good feeling. The warm rain is promoting good regrowth, which is just as well with grazing so tight.

June is almost gone and there is so much to do! More building work as we set about refettling our feed store, which looks a bit tired, to say the least.

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We are replacing the concrete block walls with pre-cast concrete panels, lifting the roof, and generally making it bigger and better.

I have still not bought any food at all for next winter, which is very unusual, but wheat prices were coming down quite nicely until the bad weather in the USA spoiled my plan! It is extremely difficult to know what to do now.

I have not bought any fertiliser either! It is so expensive for next year, and since we used less again this year I will cut down further on the amount I buy.

I'm also thinking of increasing the acres of land to be reseeded with clover-rich swards this autumn, which will cut down the fertiliser order yet further.

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We have devised a very inexpensive method of reseeding grass, where the only cost is the seed and some diesel. We spray the existing weedy sward and soften the ground with dirty water before direct- drilling the seed into the clay. It has taken some time to perfect the technique but it works very well now that we know exactly what to do.

Milk supply continues to fall in the UK, and on average we are running at 1.7 million litres a day below last year (4.1 per cent) '“ itself a record low. I see that the land suffering from drought in the Waikato area of New Zealand (first drought in 100 years) has not recovered despite heavy rains in April.

There are concerns about the impact of cow condition (because of shortage of food) and grass production for the coming season. The impact of such weather events '“ and the floods in Ohio, USA, are another example '“ affect the tight world food supply.

Politicians are beginning to understand that short supply of agricultural commodities '“ and therefore much higher prices '“ are here to stay for some time.

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As the world population continues to grow by 60-70 million people a year, and available arable land diminishes by 24 million acres per year (mainly because of urbanisation), we have a problem.

Low prices have had a major effect too, with 50 million fewer acres planted in the Ukraine (when compared with the 1970s) for example, but far more serious is the decline in investment generally.

It is also worth pointing out that while food retail prices increased by 57 per cent in the 1988-2007 period, farm gate prices increased by 17 per cent, with the farmer share declining by 20 per cent. Interestingly, the cost of living increased by 93 per cent in the same period.

Food has played an important part in keeping inflation prices low for many years, and even now is rising less quickly than other household costs such as motoring, electricity, etc.

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There is also a myth that higher food prices are bad news for developing countries.

African farming leaders, for example, have welcomed the opportunities higher prices bring, to get fallow land (previously uneconomic) into production and attract the necessary investment so as to improve their production capacity.

Net importers (poor countries) will therefore encourage and stimulate domestic production while net exporters will benefit from the extra income.

The Common Agricultural Policy and other western agricultural export subsidies have been blamed for lowering commodity prices (so- called 'dumping'), with economists arguing that this was bad for developing countries. We cannot therefore now call into question the effect of higher commodity prices on developing

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The higher commodity prices will also assist in closing the gap between rural and urban dwellers in developing countries, with income being transferred (WTO Bank study) from rich to poor.

We should not ignore some of the short-term problems caused by rising prices, however, especially in poor countries that are net importers, such as Mexico. Having relied on cheap imported (highly subsidised) grain from the USA, it will take time for the urban poor to benefit from developed home production.

The future? How do we feed the growing population and look after the environment? Is it possible? Of course it is.

We have done it for centuries and we will continue to do so but the countryside and agriculture is a living thing and change is the only constant.

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Outside Europe, GM is being increasingly used, and I would suggest that the next revolution in agriculture will be the development of GM plants that will grow in inhospitable climates, produce more for less input, and have huge benefits for poor countries as medical developments are incorporated into plant technology.

This feature first appeared in the West Sussex Gazette June 25