Gwyn Jones Farm Diary: I would like to see the impossible in the Budget

What would I like in the budget? The impossible really, I’m afraid. I would like the Chancellor to say on Wednesday that they got it completely wrong, both at the last budget and in particular the silly promises made in their election campaign not to raise taxes. Rather than scrabbling about here and there, risking further economic decline with her tax choices, I would like her to say, we are reversing all the tax rises of the last budget, and we will raise income tax this time, enough to make up for the loss of reversing the last budget and meet the future needs of the country.

By cancelling the last budget, she would restore growth by fixing the damage she inflicted on business, restore confidence for small family businesses and farmers, and whilst this would be unprecedented, she could forge ahead having wrong footed everyone, and then resign with her head held high (if she wanted). The real advantage of raising income tax is that it is simple and can be seen and felt by everyone. Stealth taxes tend to stay and are mostly hidden but do real harm. Politicians could then remain focussed on income tax and ways of lowering it, such as tackling the welfare bill.

On to farming. There are concerns in Denmark over the feed additive Bovaer. Farmers in Denmark have reported health issues in cows being fed this additive, they say the cows suffer from fever and diarrhoea. Bovaer is an additive devised to cut down the amount of methane a cow emits, manufactured by Swiss company DSM-firmenich, it contains the active ingredient 3-nitrooxypropanol and is added to cow feed in small quantities. If this was an additive for enhanced performance there would be an outcry, but once again as its to do with the environment and net-zero, no one says a word.

I have never believed in interfering with the way a cow goes about her business of digesting pretty low calorie and uninteresting feed, turning it into milk and meat, quite frankly it’s a marvel that they can do what they do. Of course they produce methane, but it’s a natural process, nothing to do with hydrocarbons, its not as if they drive, or fly or any of the other polluting things we do. No, this is a completely natural process, quite fascinating to see and given that cattle numbers are falling year on year in this country, a primary school child could tell you that therefore, the level of methane produced from cows is going down.

It has been found that there are considerable differences between individual cows in the amount of methane they produce, and it has been suggested that some genetic selection could lower methane production from cows in the long run. Quite honestly, I think this too might endanger public support, I argued against BST (bovine somatotropin) in the 1980’s during my formative years in the NFU. I have not changed my mind, as to me the facts have not materially changed. Leave the cows alone, ignore the anti-meat and dairy lobby who are making all the running with this.

Milk production in this country is still high despite more price cuts for December. My contacts in the industry tell me that many farmers have reacted to price cuts by producing more in order to make up the loss, feeding more concentrates. Some factories are running at full capacity, very unusual for this time of year and if farmers do not cut back, there will be a price car crash in the spring when traditionally milk production goes through the roof. With forage stocks low, there could well be more milk around this winter as farmers fill that gap with concentrates.

Milk price cuts are determined by commodity markets, which have fallen sharply again, with butter down almost 10% month on month due to the high production and lack of export opportunities. Skim milk powder prices are down over 5% month on month, whole milk powder prices down over 10%, and cheese down 2.1% on average.

I see a piece in Country Life (of all places), where a dairy farmer with 500 cows selling his milk to Arla, states that the milk price over the last 18 months has been reasonably good (!). He goes on to say that prices never come down in the supermarkets, so why do they come down for farmers? The NFU comments (as one would expect) that behind these numbers are real families now facing financial distress. No wonder the industry is not taken seriously on hardship, prices and inheritance tax. A degree of honesty is badly needed here. We play the victim far too often.

Then, up pops ex Conservative MP and Defra Minister George Eustice, to have his say. Farmgate prices will go down as a result of Sir Keir Starmer’s European Union reset, he claims. He is sceptical about the value of the EU reset, as we are net importers of food from the EU and they benefit more than we do. This is the sort of thinking we had in Defra for years as George (ex UKIP) moved from job to job there, unbelievably ending up as Secretary of State. He was the one who presided over the complete mess at Defra post Brexit.

He claims that all the hassle at the ports, checks at the borders was in some way beneficial as it affected the EU more than us, putting them at a disadvantage. He claims that the extra paperwork and export health certificates were largely inconsequential for lamb exports, and that the EU will have a competitive advantage over us on imports.

Could that be due to EU farmers being better supported George? That they are in a far better position now than farmers in England post Brexit with the shambles you presided over? He makes the breathtaking claim that the higher prices we have enjoyed was something to do with Conservative government policies! I do wish that those who failed as politicians would disappear and not come back to remind us of how terrible they really were.

The media tell us that British oatcake is at risk; the Prime Minister is fighting a rearguard action to exempt British oats from European food safety rules they say. The problem arises due to comparatively new EU regulations (brought in post Brexit) which could be imposed in this country as part of the EU reset. It concerns our damp coastal climate, and its effect in warm damp spells on the growth of mycotoxins in our home-grown oats. This naturally occurring mould, which can in high doses be damaging to health, is now regulated by the EU which puts us at a disadvantage. Our own committee on toxicity reviewed its advice on mycotoxins and has found that the UK’s rules are sufficient. Watch this space.