General Election 2024: Exit poll showed a political earthquake to hit Sussex - this is how it has panned out so far

While the exit poll isn’t guaranteed 100 per cent accurate it’s track record is hugely impressive. Based on recent General Elections at worst it will only be a handful of seats out for the main parties.

To see the results as they come in follow our live blog here.

For Sussex that could have meant many ‘safe’ Conservative seats changing hands for the first time in a generation and in some cases, ever.

All eyes will be on ‘True Blue’ constituencies such as Chichester, Horsham and Mid Sussex, the latter which is predicted to turn Lib Dem.

The contested Chichester and Horsham seats looked set to remain Blue – but in Chichester Education Secretary Gillian Keegan lost by more than 12,000 votes to Lib Dem candidate Jess Brown-Fuller. And there was the same result in Horsham. Mid Sussex, as predicted, was a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives.

It has been the effect of Reform UK that will have split the Tory vote in most cases.

Elsewhere, watch Crawley and Hastings, always potential swing seats between Tory and Labour, turn Red. Meanwhile along the coast, expect the Greens to hold their seat in Brighton Pavilion, Labour to hold their two seats in Brighton and Hove, Labour to take Shoreham and East Worthing and West Worthing and the Lib Dems to take back Eastbourne and Lewes. Bognor Regis looks set to be Conservative hold.

One seat which that was a dead cert to remain Conservative was that held by Andrew Griffith in Arundel and South Downs – and that is what happened.

Here is how Sussex was predicted to look and how it turned out:

Chichester - Conservative hold (exit poll) – Lib Dem gain (actual result)

Horsham - Conservative hold (exit poll) – Lib Dem gain (actual result)

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton - Conservative hold (exit poll) – actual result

Arundel and South Downs - Conservative hold (exit poll) – actual result

Crawley - Labour gain from Conservatives (exit poll)

West Worthing - Labour gain from Conservatives (exit poll) – actual result

East Worthing and Shoreham - Labour gain from Conservatives (exit poll) – actual result

Mid Sussex - Lib Dems gain from Conservative (exit poll) – actual result

Eastbourne - Lib Dems gain from Conservative (exit poll) – actual result

Lewes - Lib Dems gain from Conservative (exit poll) – actual result

East Grinstead Grinstead and Uckfield - Conservative hold (exit poll) – actual result

Hastings and Rye - Labour gain from Conservatives (exit poll) – actual result

Bexhill and Battle - Conservative hold (exit poll) – actual result

Sussex Weald - Conservative hold (exit poll) – actual result

Hove and Portslade - Labour hold (exit poll) – actual result

Brighton Pavilion - Green hold (exit poll) – actual result

Brighton Kemptown - Labour hold (exit poll) – actual result

The caveat with all of this is boundary changes and unknown impact of the Reform UK vote, which did not stand in the 2019 election.

SussexWorld website will keep you up to speed with the actual results in all these seats as they are declared. Expected from 3.30am onwards.

Follow our live blog here.