Political opinion with Andrew Griffith MP: The cost of many things is about to rise

The first and most obvious is energy. Iran sits at the heart of the world’s oil and gas system. Roughly one fifth of global oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, currently semi-closed due to the conflict. Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel, while gas prices have jumped as supply fears grow.

For Britain, this matters enormously. Even though the UK does not import much energy directly from Iran, British wholesale gas and electricity prices are linked to global markets. So-called renewable energy is intermittent when the wind doesn’t blow or sub does not shine so much of the time expensive standby gas has to be used, driving up prices. In fact, this last week has been both overcast and calm, so renewables have made little difference.

Higher energy quickly feeds through to the real economy: higher petrol prices, rising transport costs and pressure on household energy bills. Last week I heard stories about heating oil price hikes locally – in some cases prices doubling in days. They hit the elderly, vulnerable and isolated in rural areas the most and I have called on the government to act.

Energy shocks rarely stay confined to energy. Businesses pay more for transport, manufacturing and heating. Farmers pay more for fertiliser. And these costs are passed on in higher prices, pushing up the price of the weekly shop.

Finally, Middle Eastern instability inevitably pulls Western governments—including the UK—into difficult security decisions.

Whether through military deployments, maritime patrols, intelligence cooperation or diplomatic engagement, Britain now finds itself involved in efforts to stabilise the region.

Britain may be geographically far from the Gulf. But economically and politically, we are closer than it sometimes appears.