Cricket supercomputer gives verdict on Sussex’s County Championship hopes

Gareth Batty’s side are predicted to take the crown off the hands of Nottinghamshire, who won the Championship in dramatic fashion last season.

The MyBettingSites.co.uk Supercomputer has The Oval outfit winning the title this year by 12 points, finishing on 234 points having won seven of their 14 County Championship games.

Surrey have been handed a massive 42.5% chance of winning the title this season and have a less than 1% chance of being shockingly relegated to Division Two.

Essex will be their closest challengers, says the computer, finishing on 222 points with six wins this season, while Yorkshire round out the top three finishing on 214 points with five wins from their campaign.

The Supercomputer has handed Essex an 18.2% chance of winning the title, meaning Surrey are overwhelming favourites to get their hands back on the trophy.

Nottinghamshire, winners of Division One last season, are predicted to have a much tougher time of it in 2026, finishing in fifth with four wins from their 14 games and have been handed just a 7.1% chance of retaining their title.

At the other end of the table, it’s bad news for both Glamorgan and Leicestershire, who are both predicted to be relegated to Division Two.

The Foxes are predicted to finish bottom of the pile with just one win all season and 120 points from their 14 games and a 72.8% chance of going down, while it is Glamorgan who are predicted to finish just above them with two wins and 140 points with a 61.2% probability of being relegated.

Sussex, meanwhile, just about survive after a very turbulent off-season for the club, finishing eighth with three wins from their 14 games, and a 20-point gap ahead of Glamorgan. Sussex have been handed a 24.5% chance of being relegated, while their title chance is a mere 1%.

Methodology

The projection was generated through a multi-factor simulation:

Elo & Strength Weighting: Current team strengths were derived from 2025 performance data (where Nottinghamshire entered 2026 as defending champions) and adjusted for 2026 squad changes. Surrey remains the Elo leader due to their depth and the return of Sean Abbott.

Squad Analysis: We factored in major moves such as Moeen Ali (Yorkshire), Jack Leaning (Sussex), and Zaman Akhter (Essex). The loss of Shoaib Bashir and Ben Green significantly lowered Somerset’s bowling bonus point projection compared to previous years.

Points System Adherence: Calculations follow the 16 points for a win and 8 points for a draw (reverted from 5 in recent seasons). Bonus points are capped at 5 for batting (450+ runs) and 3 for bowling (10 wickets) within the first 110 overs.

Scheduling: The model accounts for early-season "green seamers" in April, which typically increases bowling points and reduces draw percentages for teams with high-quality seam attacks like Essex and Hampshire.

Tie-Breakers: In the event of equal points, the model utilizes the official ECB hierarchy: 1. Most wins, 2. Fewest losses, 3. Points in head-to-head matches.