Why xG is important to Crawley Town boss Scott Lindsey

Expected Goals (xG) is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal. An xG model uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate the likelihood of a goal on a scale between 0 and 1.

Reds boss Scott Lindsey explained: “It basically gives you an overall score of your chances that you’ve had. The higher the (xG) score is the likelihood is you’re going to score.”

Lindsey’s team have showed they can finish chances, no matter how little. “At the moment we’re actually overshooting our xG by about 7 goals,” said Lindsey.

“We’ve scored goals that have been very little chances.”

For example, Liam Kelly’s goal against Grimsby Town would have a low xG score given the difficulty of the chance.

Despite the great finishing that has been on display, Crawley’s great start to the season may not continue if the team don’t begin to rack up higher xG scored in matches. Lindsey believes xG comes accurate, meaning eventually those 7 goals worth of chances will probably be missed.

Speaking before the Sutton win, Lindsey said: “It patterns out over the course of a season to be not too far off.”

Lindsey has highlighted the importance of continuing Crawley’s good form further into the campaign. “We do know that it’s just a start.” He said, “We’ve got to continue, we’ve got to keep playing well.”

In order to do that, I think it’s safe to say that Crawley Town need to start creating higher xG value chances more often; to ensure they keep scoring goals and keep themselves thriving in League Two.