John Milne MP: War and Peace
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I was honoured to join in with a very well-attended Remembrance Sunday in the Carfax this year to lay a wreath on behalf of Parliament.
And indeed the timing is appropriate, as our national security has climbed higher up the national agenda with the re-election of Donald Trump as US president. Leaving aside what it means for the US, how might it affect us?
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Hide AdThe overwhelming risk for Britain is Trump’s ambiguous attitude, to say the least, towards NATO. While he is right to say that other members should contribute more, that’s nowhere near enough reason to abandon the alliance altogether. NATO has been outstanding value for the US as well as everyone else. Terrorist incidents aside, no NATO country has ever been attacked. Article 5 requires that all members must come to the aid of any one member, if that member is attacked. The only time it’s been invoked, ironically, was by the US itself after 9/11.


The second risk, which is closely linked to the NATO challenge, is that Trump might pull support from Ukraine. Even in raising the possibility that Ukraine should trade land for peace, Trump has hugely increased Russia’s confidence and negotiating power. Putin’s list of demands for a deal will likely include Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, a commitment to never join NATO or the EU, and quite possibly disarmament as well. It would be a surrender with incalculable consequences across eastern Europe.
The third big risk is to the world economy. Trump is an isolationist by instinct. He says he’s going to impose a flat rate 10-20% tariff on all trade, including with Britain, and 60% on some Chinese trade. This would undoubtedly cause a general outbreak of protectionism and severely damage world trade in a series of tit-for-tat tariffs.
Of course, Trump made many promises in his first term of office which he didn’t keep. He didn’t build a wall and Mexico didn’t pay for it. But he will re-enter office with none of the checks and balances that curbed his wilder notions last time. I wish our government all the best in the challenges to come.