2022 Grand National: Why history suggests 66/1 shot Deise Aba could win

Research from each of the previous 173 Grand National winners reveals a typical winner to be nine years old with a handicap of 10st 7lbs

As anticipation builds toward the 2022 race this Saturday, historical research into previous winners of the race finds that Deise Aba has the best chance of riding away with this year’s prize.

The research, by GrandNational.org.uk analysed the traits from all winning horses since the Grand National’s inception in 1839, and found that, statistically, the winner of the iconic race is a nine-year old horse with a handicap of 10st 7lbs, priced by bookies at 20/1 pre-race.

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Of the confirmed 2022 runners, Deise Aba matches this description closest with an age of nine and handicap of 10st 7lbs. While not providing an exact match for the typical starting price, current odds show that he does provide good value at 66/1, so he’ll earn punters plenty of cash if he wins.

Various other factors can be considered lucky for Grand National winners – trainers called Tom have more wins (11) than any other, with George (8), Fred (7) and James (7) following closely behind. In 2022’s field, there’s just one horse trained by a Tom, the 100/1 priced Kauto Riko.

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When it comes to ownership, 17 previous winning owners have been called John. That’s just shy of one in ten (9.8%), and includes last year’s winning horse, Minella Times (20/1) – owned by John P McManus, which could be his golden ticket towards making it back-to-back victories.

And whilst this year’s riders are yet to be announced, you could bet your bottom dollar that a ‘John’ (11 wins) or ‘Tommy’ (11 wins) are set to ride well in this race. In total, their names account for over a tenth of all Grand National winning jockeys (13%).

Only eight horses hold the esteemed award of multiple-time winner – of which Red Rum, is the only three-time champion.

A spokesperson for GrandNational.org.uk said: “Our research shows that historically, nine-year old horses, weighing 10st 7lbs, race best in the Grand National, making Deise Aba a great prospect, despite being priced at 66/1.

“The historical traits of previous horses can be worth considering when having a flutter on the Grand National, it often goes against the bookmaker’s favourites and provides great value prices for successful betting slips. So if you’re a fan of Aba, why not ‘take a chance’ on Deise?”